Property has Green Shoots
Does the North follow the 'Green Shoots' of the South
It may seem difficult to believe now, but if London prices continue to look up, the 'ripple effect' could happen again.
The latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) is showing an increased activity, and prices are starting to stabilise — and with London paving the way. On an unadjusted basis, a balance of only 5% of surveyors in London saw prices down last month, against 89% in December. Many are predicting an increase in house prices.
Nationally, the balance of surveyors reporting a fall in prices has dropped from 84% to 36% (74% to 44%, seasonally adjusted) since December. At the other extreme, a net 82% of surveyors in the West Midlands say prices are falling; in Yorkshire & Humberside, it is 69%.
Many estate agents and surveyors have the sentiment that prices will start to rise after January - mainly due to the issues of supply.
Paul Kumar, Senior Buyer at The Property Buyers, "We are very much at the bottom of the market and are beginning to see property valuations on the increase - although only by small percentage, the market is getting a little better than it was six months ago. Their seems to be a perception that the worst is over".
Many of the agents are concerned that prices will bounce back too quickly, threatening the sustainability of the recovery.
Such thoughts are a long way off for many parts of the country. They have to hope that, as in the past, where London leads, they will follow.
The Bank of England say as many as 10 homwoners are caught in negative equity. The scale similar to that of the 1990's, but thanks to low interest rates, however, the level of mortgage arrears and repossessions has, so far, been far lower than last time around.
(Thursday, June 18, 2009)